李景景:Wishful Thinking in Macroeconomic Expectations: A Field Experiment in China

发布时间:2021-04-25浏览次数:656

  间:2021430日(周五)13:00-14:30

 点:松江校区2235室

主讲人:李景景 深圳大学微众银行金融科技学院、深圳大学南特商学院 副教授

主持人:杨晓兰 教授

  Wishful Thinking in Macroeconomic Expectations: A Field Experiment in China

讲座摘要

We conduct an online field experiment in China to investigate determinants of macroeconomic expectations following the Covid-19 outbreak. We investigate the effect of probability overweighting, religiosity, ambiguity aversion, and time preference. We find that subjects exhibiting probability overweighting, having higher degree of religiosity, having lower discount factor are more optimistic on economic growth and income, while ambiguity averse subjects are more pessimistic about the impact of Covid-19 outbreak on the economic growth rate. We compute the forecast errors and estimate the proportion of forecasts with rounding and implausible values. We find that significant proportion of subjects have rather poor understanding on macroeconomic variables. Subjects with higher degree of religiosity, living in small towns and villages, and with higher subjective socioeconomic status have higher forecast errors, while subjects with better education have lower forecast errors. Overall, we find that subjects form optimistic expectations, supporting the implication of belief-based utility (Brunnermeier and Parker, 2005) and wishful thinking (Seybert and Bloomfield, 2009) on macroeconomic expectations.

嘉宾简介:

李景景,香港科技大学经济学博士,现任深圳大学微众银行金融科技学院、深圳大学南特商学院副教授,曾任职于香港城市大学(助理教授)、上海财经大学(助理教授)和德国马克斯-普朗克经济研究所(博士后)。研究兴趣为实验经济学、行为经济学和行为金融,是首位使用实验经济学方法研究语言和决策、记忆偏见及随机偏好的学者。研究成果发表于Management ScienceExperimental EconomicsJournal of Economic PsychologySocial Choice and WelfareJournal of Risk and UncertaintyEconomic Theory等经管领域顶级期刊。

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